北京时间周四(2月1日)凌晨03:00,美联储宣布维持利率在1.25%-1.5%不变,一如市场预期。这是美联储2018年的第一次利率决议,也是美联储主席耶伦主持召开的最后一次FOMC会议。
同去年12月的议息会议相比,本次会议声明有哪些变化?以下是两者的中英文对比:
联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)自12月(删除:11月)会议以来获得的信息显示,就业市场继续增强,经济活动一直在以稳健的步幅增长。(增加:就业、家庭支出和企业固定投资稳步增长,失业率维持在低位)(删除:失业率进一步下滑,企业固定投资在近几季已经增加。)今年整体通胀和不计入食品和能源价格的通胀指标较上年同期下降,(删除:一直在2%以下)(增加:继续低于2%)。总的来说,基于市场的通胀补偿指标(增加:有所上涨但)仍偏低,基于调查的较长期通胀预期指标变动不大。
委员会将依照法定的目标,寻求促进就业最大化和物价稳定。委员会仍预计,随着货币政策立场的(增加:进一步)逐步调整,经济活动将适度扩张,就业市场状况(增加:已经有所加强)(删除:将在一定程度上进一步增强)。预计年通胀率将在(增加:在今年上升)(删除:短期内保持在低于2%的水准),但中期在委员会2%的目标附近稳定下来。经济前景的短期风险看来大致均衡,但委员会正密切关注通胀发展。
鉴于已实现的和预期的就业市场状况和通胀情况,委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间(增加:维持在1.25%-1.5%)(删除:提高到1.25%-1.5%)。货币政策立场保持宽松,因此会支持强劲的就业市场状况,并带动通胀持续向2%回升。
在决定未来调整联邦基金利率目标区间的时机和规模时,委员会将评估与就业最大化以及2%通胀目标相关的已实现和预期的经济活动状况。评估将考量广泛的信息,包括就业市场数据、通胀压力和通胀预期指标,以及反应金融市场和国际情势发展的指标。委员会将密切监控向对称的通胀目标取得的实际和预期的通胀发展。委员会预计,经济未来的发展将为(增加:进一步)循序渐进地上调联邦基金利率提供理据;联邦基金利率可能在一段时间内会维持在预计在较长期内保持的水准之下。不过,联邦基金利率实际路径将取决于未来数据展现的经济前景。
FOMC货币政策会议中投票赞成者包括:FOMC委员会主席(美联储主席)耶伦(Janet L. Yellen, Chairman);委员会副主席(纽约联储主席)杜德利( William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman);(增加:(里士满联储主席)Thomas I. Barkin;(亚特兰大联储主席)Raphael W. Bostic;)(美联储理事)Lael Brainard;(删除:(费城联储主席)Patrick Harker;(达拉斯联储主席)Robert S. Kaplan)、(克利夫兰联储主席)Loretta J Mester;(美联储理事)Jerome H. Powell;(美联储副主席)Randal K. Quarles和John C. Williams。)
(删除:投反对票的包括:(芝加哥联储主席)Charles L. Evans;(明尼阿波利斯联储主席)Neel Kashkari,他们在会议上倾向于维持联邦基金利率不变。)
以下为英文全文:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12 month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.
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Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved